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Analysis of the Underlying Logic of the Cryptocurrency Market’s Current Situation

Analysis of the Underlying Logic of the Cryptocurrency Market’s Current Situation

​Recently, there have been no changes in the fundamental situation, and market variables have not appeared. Therefore in a long time dimension, your cryptocurrency investment strategy will not change. Of course, this is one of the reasons why our market analysis update frequency has become lower.
At the same time, due to a certain sensitive period recently, the major public accounts and VX groups are turbulent, so we temporarily adjust the release time of the market analysis to Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday (except for special circumstances). Mondays and Wednesdays are mainly short articles on market analysis and technology and strategy, and Saturdays are mainly long articles, mainly talking about investment theory, direction, and trends, aiming to help everyone figure out the direction and don’t make mistakes. Fantasy.
Today we will talk about the current trend, and give the current market a directional qualitative.
Because for a long period of time before recently, including many friends around me, everyone still had illusions about the current market. Although we had identified the stage of a structural bear market early, everyone was still optimistic about the rebound. Cloud mining crypto -The reversal has big illusions, and is still reluctant to liquidate or low-position high-frequency operations. Therefore, today we do not analyze the quantitative and qualitative issues of the market from the previous technical analysis and strategic theories. We analyze the relationship between trends and bubbles from the perspective of market reflexivity.
Before doing theoretical research, we must make a theoretical premise for the theory to be researched. The premise of this theory is the pre-supposed quantity in mathematical research and scientific research. For example, we often assume that the basic unit quantity is 1 in mathematical research. Or 100 is the same.
Before writing hypotheses, I must remind that today’s things may be quite brain-burning or require certain cognitive abilities, otherwise you may see it in the cloud. Cloud mining crypto -But I have to talk about this reason, because the bottom of this cognition determines the premise of our investment guidance.

First of all, we did not regard the cloud mining cryptocurrency market as a stock market (the stock market has theoretical premises surrounding value and price fluctuations, and we can conduct research and analysis around value and price in the analysis), and of course we cannot regard it as a stock market. The exchange rate market (the exchange rate market revolves around the price fluctuations of interest rates and exchange rates as the premise, we can study and analyze the relationship between supply and demand of currencies during analysis), and it cannot be regarded as a commodity futures market (this is basically the expected supply and demand of commodities) Analyze the problem).
Therefore, the analytical theories cannot be guided by the theories of these markets, but their markets can be used for reference. Because it is not universally applicable to the cloud mining cryptocurrency market, we cannot directly use their theories for normalization analysis. This forms the most difficult threshold in our analysis-what theoretical premise do we set as cloud mining cryptocurrency.
We all know that there are many immature things in the cloud mining crypto market, and there is even a big hype bubble. Therefore, we are a very immature market. In the face of immature problems, we believe that the incomplete understanding of the participants is ours. It should be assumed that the central issue is the hypothetical premise of the research, and the reason for the incomplete understanding of the participants is that they affect the context related to it. Incomplete understanding is a very difficult concept to operate. There is a lack of correspondence between the participants' thinking and the situation related to it, but this lack of correspondence is difficult to define, let alone measure.
Participants' thinking is part of the context related to it, and the corresponding concept itself is not suitable for describing the relationship between the part and the whole. This concept is imported from natural science and philosophy. In natural sciences, facts and statements belong to their respective worlds, while in philosophy, correspondence is the criterion of truth, but this analogy does not apply to thinking participants, because the corresponding thinking participants in the cloud mining crypto market are too much. Complexity leads to non-linear analysis. To simplify the problem, we use the concept of inherent bias of participants. Since bias is inherent, impartiality is unattainable.

Today we can’t define and set the relationship between the participants’ thinking and the situation they participate in, and we can’t clarify their functional relationship, because it is meaningless and difficult to understand for everyone, so we focus on the facts. Say it for analysis.
Because of the cognition problems of participants and the cognition of participants in the participation context, we characterize the cloud mining crypto market as a cognitive bias market that is affected by the interaction of participants and the participation context. Therefore, we believe that the cloud mining crypto market is not an equilibrium market. But a market that is always deviating. We believe that its valuation is always distorted, which is a decisive departure from equilibrium theory-but this distortion has the power to influence potential value.
If we define the market as a market in which participants interact with the context of participation, then in this analysis scenario, there are only three variable factors-price, basic trend, and mainstream bias.
Prices and basic trends do not need to be explained. Cloud mining crypto - The definition of mainstream bias is that we believe that there are a large number of participants in the market, and their views must be different. If you assume that many of their biases cancel each other out, the rest is me. Think of the "mainstream bias", then this "mainstream bias" is the main market bias influencing factors we analyzed.
The movement of prices either positively promotes and strengthens the basic trend, or acts in the opposite direction, weakening the basic trend to correct itself. When the trend is strengthened by the price, the trend will accelerate, and the consensus on mainstream bias will also be strengthened, and the future price will be larger than the expected price (both positive and negative directions are the same).
On the contrary, when it corrects itself, this difference will be reduced. We can understand that when the basic trend is formed, the mainstream bias is mixed with a lot of speculative activities (but in reality, most activities are speculative activities, such as contract volume can be regarded as a speculative indicator).
First of all, everyone must make it clear that speculative activity cannot rebuild balance. On the contrary, it will strengthen this basic trend. When the speculative trend is profitable, the weight ratio of this kind of speculation will increase and it is self-reinforcing that accelerates growth. Cloud mining crypto -The longer the self-reinforcing trend will continue, the stronger the consensus on mainstream bias will be. This is the logic of the formation of trend reflexivity.
At the same time, once a trend is established and strengthened into a cycle, it often lasts for a long time until the turning point appears, after which a self-reinforcing process is initiated in the opposite direction. Therefore, once the trend is formed, it will be difficult to change, and the direction of this trend will be maintained for a long time. Regarding the end and change of the trend, this is actually a relatively easy thing to judge. It is often accompanied by the influence of policies. Policies affect the main variables of the market, such as the supply of currency. Disruption of mainstream bias has become very divergent, and market speculation indicators have weakened and been harvested.
Cloud mining crypto - It can be broadly understood as when a long-term trend gradually becomes the end of a strong crossbow, there will be violent fluctuations in non-trend variables, violent fluctuations in prices, violent fluctuations in mainstream thinking, and signals that speculative indicators have been forced to weaken, and so on.
Cloud mining crypto -There is no way to exhaust the theoretical discussion about this theory today. But there is one point that I believe everyone can understand. What is the current trend? Is it possible to rebound or reverse? The market is in a self-reinforcing trend cycle, you and you carefully product. This is the core underlying logic why we told you not to report any illusions a long time ago.